两类ENSO事件对长江中下游地区季节降水的影响
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摘要
使用1966-2015年长江中下游地区91个气象站月降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、距平分析等方法分析了长江中下游地区近50年降水变化特征及其对两类ENSO事件的响应。结果表明,近50年来长江中下游地区夏季降水量以2.04mm/a的倾向率呈显著增加趋势,年降水量在区域内呈东增西减的分布特征。厄尔尼诺事件易造成长江中下游冬、春季降水异常偏多,而拉尼娜事件发生时夏季降水大幅偏多。东部型厄尔尼诺发生当年长江沿岸一带附近夏季降雨偏少,中部型事件当年呈现南多北少的响应特征,次年则转变为相反的空间分布。中、东部型拉尼娜事件发生当年,秋季降水分别显著偏多和偏少。东部型拉尼娜次年夏季降水普遍偏多,以长江中下游东部最为显著,而中部型事件次年夏季降水则呈现东南多西北少的分布格局。
The monthly precipitation data from 91 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1966 to 2015 were used to analyze the precipitation variation in the region over the past 50 years and its response to the two types of ENSO events.We used linear propensity estimation,Mann-Kendall test,and anomaly analysis.The results showed that the summer precipitation in the region tended to increase at a rate of 2.04 mm/a in the past 50 years.The annual precipitation showed an increasing tendency in the east and a decreasing tendency in the west.El Ni1 o events were prone to cause an abnormally large amount of precipitation in spring and winter,whereas La Ni1 a events caused much more precipitation in summer.In the year of the Eastern Pacific(EP)El Ni1 o,summer precipitation along the Yangtze River was less than usual.In the year of the Central Pacific(CP)El Ni1 o,summer precipitation would increase in the north and decrease in the south,whereas the decaying year would see an opposite spatial pattern.In the year of CP La Ni1 a,there was a significantly larger amount of precipitation in autumn,whereas in the year of EP La Ni1 a,the amount was significantly smaller.In the decaying year of EP La Ni1 a,summer precipitation was generally more than usual,especially in the east of the region;but in the decaying year of CP La Ni1 a,summer precipitation was more than usual in the southeast and less in the northwest.
The monthly precipitation data from 91 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1966 to 2015 were used to analyze the precipitation variation in the region over the past 50 years and its response to the two types of ENSO events.We used linear propensity estimation,Mann-Kendall test,and anomaly analysis.The results showed that the summer precipitation in the region tended to increase at a rate of 2.04 mm/a in the past 50 years.The annual precipitation showed an increasing tendency in the east and a decreasing tendency in the west.El Ni1 o events were prone to cause an abnormally large amount of precipitation in spring and winter,whereas La Ni1 a events caused much more precipitation in summer.In the year of the Eastern Pacific(EP)El Ni1 o,summer precipitation along the Yangtze River was less than usual.In the year of the Central Pacific(CP)El Ni1 o,summer precipitation would increase in the north and decrease in the south,whereas the decaying year would see an opposite spatial pattern.In the year of CP La Ni1 a,there was a significantly larger amount of precipitation in autumn,whereas in the year of EP La Ni1 a,the amount was significantly smaller.In the decaying year of EP La Ni1 a,summer precipitation was generally more than usual,especially in the east of the region;but in the decaying year of CP La Ni1 a,summer precipitation was more than usual in the southeast and less in the northwest.
引文
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[9]秦甲,丁永建,叶柏生,等.两类El Ni1o事件对我国河西走廊地区水文气象要素的影响[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1279-1285.(QIN J,DING Y J,YE B S,et al.Influence of two patterns of El Ni1o on the hydrological and meteorological in Hexi Corridor Region of China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(5):1279-1285.(in Chinese))
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[12]赵亮,邹力,王成林,等.ENSO年东亚夏季风异常对中国江、淮流域夏季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(4):360-366.(ZHAO L,ZOU L,WANG C L,et al.Impacts of the east Asian summer monsoon anomaly during the ENSO event period on the summer precipitation in the Lower-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River Valley[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,22(4):360-366.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2006.04.007.
[13]金祖辉,陶诗言.ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):663-672.(JIN Z H,TAO S Y.A study on the relationship between ENSO cycle and rainfalls during summer and winter in eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1999,23(6):663-672.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1999.06.03.
[14]宗海锋.两个典型ENSO季节演变模态及其与我国东部降水的联系[J].大气科学,2017,41(6):1264-1283.(ZONG H F.Two typical ENSO seasonal evolution modes and their relations with rainfall over eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2017,41(6):1264–1283.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1704.16279.
[15]QX/T 370-2017,厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件判别方法[S].(QX/T370-2017,El Nino/La Nina event discrimination method[S].(in Chinese))
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].气象出版社,2007.(WEI F Y.Modern climate statistic diagnosis and prediction technology(second edition)[M].Meteorological Publishing House,2007.(in Chinese))
[17]Huang R,Wu Y.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1989,6(1):21-32.DOI:10.1007/bf02656915.
[18]钱维宏,朱江,王永光,等.江淮梅雨和赤道太平洋区域海温变化的关系[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):79-84.(QIAN W H,ZHU J,WANG Y G,et al.Regional relationship betweenthe Jiang-Huai Meiyu and the equatorial surface-subsurface temperature anomalies.[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(1):79-84.(in Chinese))DOI:10.1007/s11434-008-0410-6.
[19]汪靖,何金海,刘宣飞,等.江淮梅雨建立的年际变化及其前期强影响信号分析[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):85-92.(WANG J,HE J H,LIU X F,et al.Interannual variability of the Meiyu onset over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and analyses of its previous strong influence signal.Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(1):85-92.(in Chinese))DOI:10.1007/s11434-008-0534-8.
[20]袁媛,李崇银,杨崧.与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜相联系的中国南方冬季降水的年代际异常特征[J].气象学报,2014,(2):237-255.(YUAN Y,LI C Y,YANG S.Decadal anomalies of winter precipitation over southern China in association with El Nino and La Nina[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,(2):237-255.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.014.
[21]骆高远.我国对厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜研究综述[J].地理科学,2000,20(3):264-269.(LUO G Y.A general survey of the studies on El Ni1o and La Ni1a in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2000,20(3):264-269.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2000.03.012.
[22]陈旭,李栋梁.新标准下江淮梅雨特征的分析[J].气象科学,2016,36(2):165-175.(CHEN X,LI D L.The features of Meiyu under the new standard.[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(2):165-175.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/2015jms.0001.
[2]BJERKNES J.Atmospheric teleconnections from equatorial pacific[J].Monthly Weather Review,1969,97(3).
[3]WANG C,DESER C,YU J Y,et al.El Ni?o and Southern Oscillation(ENSO):A Review[M].Springer Netherlands,2017.
[4]秦坚肇,王亚非.构建描述两种ENSO类型的新指数[J].气象学报,2014,72(3):526-541.(QIN J Z,WANG Y F.Constructing of new indices for the two types ENSO events[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,72(3):526-541.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.023.
[5]KAO H Y,YU J Y.Contrasting eastern-pacific and central-pacific types of ENSO[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(3):615-632.DOI:10.1175/2008jcli2309.1.
[6]吴萍,丁一汇,柳艳菊.厄尔尼诺事件对中国夏季水汽输送和降水分布影响的新研究[J].气象学报,2017,75(3):371-383.(WU P,DING Y H,LIU Y J.A new study of El Nino impacts on summertime water vapor transport and rainfall in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(3):371-383.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11676/qxxb2017.033.
[7]袁媛,杨辉,李崇银.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):467-478.(YUAN Y,YANG H,LI C Y.Study of El Nino events of different types and their potential impact on the following summer precipitation in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,70(3):467-478.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11676/qxxb2012.039.
[8]袁良,何金海.两类ENSO对我国华南地区冬季降水的不同影响[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):24-31.(YUAN L,HE J H.Different impacts of two types of ENSO on winter rainfall over south China[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2013,31(1):24-31.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2013)-01-0024.
[9]秦甲,丁永建,叶柏生,等.两类El Ni1o事件对我国河西走廊地区水文气象要素的影响[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1279-1285.(QIN J,DING Y J,YE B S,et al.Influence of two patterns of El Ni1o on the hydrological and meteorological in Hexi Corridor Region of China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(5):1279-1285.(in Chinese))
[10]郭群善.近50年长江中下游地区旱涝时空分布[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(4):72-76.(GUO Q S.Drought-flood temporal and spatial distribution in middle and downstream area of the Yangtze River over past 50years[J].South-toNorth Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(4):72-76.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.04.012.
[11]闪丽洁,张利平,张艳军,et al.长江中下游流域旱涝急转事件特征分析及其与ENSO的关系[J].地理学报,2018,(1):25-40.(SHAN L J,ZHANG L P,ZHANG Y J,et al.Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and their relationship with ENSO[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,(1):25-40.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11821/dlxb201801003.
[12]赵亮,邹力,王成林,等.ENSO年东亚夏季风异常对中国江、淮流域夏季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(4):360-366.(ZHAO L,ZOU L,WANG C L,et al.Impacts of the east Asian summer monsoon anomaly during the ENSO event period on the summer precipitation in the Lower-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River Valley[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,22(4):360-366.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2006.04.007.
[13]金祖辉,陶诗言.ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):663-672.(JIN Z H,TAO S Y.A study on the relationship between ENSO cycle and rainfalls during summer and winter in eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1999,23(6):663-672.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1999.06.03.
[14]宗海锋.两个典型ENSO季节演变模态及其与我国东部降水的联系[J].大气科学,2017,41(6):1264-1283.(ZONG H F.Two typical ENSO seasonal evolution modes and their relations with rainfall over eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2017,41(6):1264–1283.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1704.16279.
[15]QX/T 370-2017,厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件判别方法[S].(QX/T370-2017,El Nino/La Nina event discrimination method[S].(in Chinese))
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].气象出版社,2007.(WEI F Y.Modern climate statistic diagnosis and prediction technology(second edition)[M].Meteorological Publishing House,2007.(in Chinese))
[17]Huang R,Wu Y.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1989,6(1):21-32.DOI:10.1007/bf02656915.
[18]钱维宏,朱江,王永光,等.江淮梅雨和赤道太平洋区域海温变化的关系[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):79-84.(QIAN W H,ZHU J,WANG Y G,et al.Regional relationship betweenthe Jiang-Huai Meiyu and the equatorial surface-subsurface temperature anomalies.[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(1):79-84.(in Chinese))DOI:10.1007/s11434-008-0410-6.
[19]汪靖,何金海,刘宣飞,等.江淮梅雨建立的年际变化及其前期强影响信号分析[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):85-92.(WANG J,HE J H,LIU X F,et al.Interannual variability of the Meiyu onset over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and analyses of its previous strong influence signal.Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(1):85-92.(in Chinese))DOI:10.1007/s11434-008-0534-8.
[20]袁媛,李崇银,杨崧.与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜相联系的中国南方冬季降水的年代际异常特征[J].气象学报,2014,(2):237-255.(YUAN Y,LI C Y,YANG S.Decadal anomalies of winter precipitation over southern China in association with El Nino and La Nina[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,(2):237-255.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.014.
[21]骆高远.我国对厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜研究综述[J].地理科学,2000,20(3):264-269.(LUO G Y.A general survey of the studies on El Ni1o and La Ni1a in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2000,20(3):264-269.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2000.03.012.
[22]陈旭,李栋梁.新标准下江淮梅雨特征的分析[J].气象科学,2016,36(2):165-175.(CHEN X,LI D L.The features of Meiyu under the new standard.[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(2):165-175.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/2015jms.0001.
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