基于SWAT模型的黄柏河东支流域气候变化的水文响应研究
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摘要
黄柏河东支流域为宜昌市的生活、工业用水和农业用水提供了重要保障,是宜昌市重要水源地,研究气候变化情景下径流量的变化对该流域经济发展和生态保护具有重要意义.本文使用SWAT模型模拟黄柏河东支流域不同气候变化情景下的月径流变化,将流域下游尚家河水库为研究区出口,以2006～2012年为率定期,2013～2016年为验证期,首先将尚家河水库入库径流还原为天然月径流,进而建立流域SWAT模型并对其进行检验;设置降雨与气温不同组合条件下的34种情景作为SWAT模型输入,分析径流量变化.结果表明:在率定期与验证期的径流模拟效率系数和决定系数均达到0.85,满足精度要求.气候变化情景下,月径流增加量最大的情景为温度降低2℃,降雨增大6%,月径流增加量1 334.88万m3,减小量最大的情景是温度升高4℃,降雨减少2%,月径流减少量839.80万m3.月径流对降雨和温度变化呈现非线性响应.研究结果可为流域水资源管理提供决策支持.
The Huangbaihe River East Branch provides an important guarantee for the living,industrial and agricultural water use in Yichang City.It is an important water source in Yichang City.The study of runoff changes under climate change scenarios is of great significance to the economic development and ecological protection of the basin.In this paper,the SWAT model is used to simulate the monthly runoff variation under different climate change scenarios in the East Branch of Huangbaihe River.The Shangjiahe Reservoir in the lower reaches of the basin is the export of the study area.The period is from 2006 to 2012,and the period from 2013 to 2016 is the verification period.The inflow runoff of Shangjiahe Reservoir is returned to natural monthly runoff;and then the SWAT model of the basin is established and tested.34 scenarios under different combinations of rainfall and temperature are set as SWAT model inputs to analyze runoff changes.The results show that the efficiency coefficient and the determination coefficient of runoff simulation in the periodic and verification period are both 0.85,which meets the accuracy requirements.Under the climate change scenario,the scenario with the largest monthly runoff increase is a temperature decrease of 2 ℃,a rainfall increase of6%,and a monthly runoff increase of 13.34 million m3.The maximum reduction scenario is a temperature increase of 4 ℃ and a decrease of 2%.The monthly runoff reduction is 8.398 million m3.Monthly runoff presents a nonlinear response to rainfall and temperature changes.Research results can provide decision support for water resources management in river basins.
The Huangbaihe River East Branch provides an important guarantee for the living,industrial and agricultural water use in Yichang City.It is an important water source in Yichang City.The study of runoff changes under climate change scenarios is of great significance to the economic development and ecological protection of the basin.In this paper,the SWAT model is used to simulate the monthly runoff variation under different climate change scenarios in the East Branch of Huangbaihe River.The Shangjiahe Reservoir in the lower reaches of the basin is the export of the study area.The period is from 2006 to 2012,and the period from 2013 to 2016 is the verification period.The inflow runoff of Shangjiahe Reservoir is returned to natural monthly runoff;and then the SWAT model of the basin is established and tested.34 scenarios under different combinations of rainfall and temperature are set as SWAT model inputs to analyze runoff changes.The results show that the efficiency coefficient and the determination coefficient of runoff simulation in the periodic and verification period are both 0.85,which meets the accuracy requirements.Under the climate change scenario,the scenario with the largest monthly runoff increase is a temperature decrease of 2 ℃,a rainfall increase of6%,and a monthly runoff increase of 13.34 million m3.The maximum reduction scenario is a temperature increase of 4 ℃ and a decrease of 2%.The monthly runoff reduction is 8.398 million m3.Monthly runoff presents a nonlinear response to rainfall and temperature changes.Research results can provide decision support for water resources management in river basins.
引文
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[16]刘晓冉,杨茜,程炳岩,等.三峡库区21世纪气候变化的情景预估分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1):42-47.
[2]王苗,郭品文,邬昀.中国东部极端降水变化特征及其与大气稳定度的关系[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(1):47-56.
[3]丁永建,刘凤景.近三十年来青海湖流域气候变化对水量平衡的影响及其趋势预测[J].地理科学,1995,15(2):128-135,199.
[4]木沙·如孜,白云岗,徐强,等.气候变化对塔里木河流域作物需水量的影响[J].人民黄河,2013,35(3):68-70.
[5]郭生练.气候变化对洪水频率和洪峰流量的影响[J].水科学进展,1995,6(3):224-230.
[6]杨志勇,于赢东,王建华,等.气候变化对伊逊河流域水资源量的影响[J].水科学进展,2011,22(2):175-181.
[7]张永勇,花瑞祥,夏瑞.气候变化对淮河流域水量水质影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):114-126.
[8]夏智宏,周月华,许红梅.基于SWAT模型的汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(2):158-163.
[9]郭军庭,张志强,王盛萍,等.应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响[J].生态学报,2014,34(6):1559-1567.
[10]史晓亮,杨志勇,吕杰,等.滦河流域气候变化的水文响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(2):123-127.
[11]江净超,朱阿兴,秦承志,等.分布式水文模型软件系统研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(8):1090-1100.
[12]李鸿儒,卢远,何文.基于SWAT模型的钦江流域径流对气候变化的响应研究[J].环保科技,2016,22(3):1-4,22.
[13]Srinivasan R,Ramanarayanan T S,Arnold J G,et al.Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment PartⅡ:Model Application[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1998,34(1):73-89.
[14]庞靖鹏,徐宗学,刘昌明.SWAT模型研究应用进展[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(3):31-35.
[15]Arnold J G,Fohrer N.SWAT2000:Current Capabilities and Research Opportunities in Applied Watershed Modelling[J].Hydrological Processes,2005,19(3):563-572.
[16]刘晓冉,杨茜,程炳岩,等.三峡库区21世纪气候变化的情景预估分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1):42-47.