Statistics of tropical cyclone landfalls in the Philippines: unusual characteristics of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

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• 作者：Hiroshi Takagi ; Miguel Esteban
• 关键词：Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) ; Tropical cyclone landfalls ; Philippines ; Return period ; Forward speed ; Storm surge
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：80
• 期：1
• 页码：211-222
• 全文大小：1,263 KB
• 参考文献：Algue PJ (1897) EL BAGUIO DE SAMAR Y LEYTE, The Manila Observatory
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• 作者单位：Hiroshi Takagi (1)
  Miguel Esteban (2)
  
  1. Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
  2. The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

The unusual statistical characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan were investigated using the JTWC best track data from 1945 to 2013, particularly focusing on tropical cyclones making landfall in the Philippines. Haiyan generated the strongest winds among a collection of over 400 past storms, which was 16 % greater than the second strongest typhoon on record (Typhoon Zeb in 1998). The forward speed of Haiyan was nearly twice as fast as the average speed of these weather systems and could be the fastest typhoon on record. Thus, Haiyan can be characterized as both the fastest moving and strongest typhoon measured in the area. The return period for a Haiyan-class typhoon to make landfall was estimated to be 200 years. A statistical analysis also indicated that the number of tropical cyclone making landfall around Leyte Island in the Philippines—the area most severely damaged by Haiyan—has been steadily increasing over the past 7 decades. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that both Haiyan and Zeb occurred during seasons that were characterized by remarkably warm SSTs over the seas surrounding the Philippines. Keywords Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) Tropical cyclone landfalls Philippines Return period Forward speed Storm surge