Trends in reference evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the Loess Plateau, China: implications for ecological projects and agricultural production
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- 作者：Zhongjie Shi ; Lihong Xu ; Xiaohui Yang…
- 关键词：Reference evapotranspiration ; Trend ; Attribution ; Mann–Kendall ; Land use ; Loess plateau
- 刊名：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
- 出版年：2017
- 出版时间：January 2017
- 年：2017
- 卷：31
- 期：1
- 页码：257-273
- 全文大小：
- 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
- 刊物主题：Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Earth Sciences, general; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Computa
- 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- ISSN：1436-3259
- 卷排序：31
文摘
In the water-limited Loess Plateau, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important hydrological factor affecting the implementation of ecological projects, agricultural production, and water resource management, and its long-term variation is of great interest in climate change studies. Based on daily data from 57 meteorological stations, temporal and spatial patterns in ETo and related driving factors were evaluated for the period 1958–2011. In addition, the influences of agricultural cultivation and urbanization on ETo trends were also analyzed. The results indicated both decreasing and increasing trends in annual and seasonal ETo series in this area. The area-average ETo series experienced a weak decreasing annual trend. However, more ETo series were found with increasing trends. More decreasing trends were found in summer, winter, and the growing season, but more increasing trends were seen in spring and autumn. Analysis of the contributions of meteorological variables on trends in ETo showed that wind speed was the most dominant factor affecting ETo variation at most stations. In addition, cultivation and urbanization also affected ETo trends. The impact on ETo trend was more obvious for the urbanization than cultivation. A warmer and drier trend would affect the implementation of ecological projects, the occurrence of dried soil layers, desertification, and agricultural production of the area.