The Central China North–South Seismic Belt: Seismicity, Ergodicity, and Five-year PI Forecast in Testing
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- 作者：Shengfeng Zhang ; Zhongliang Wu ; Changsheng Jiang
- 关键词：The central China north–south seismic belt ; Ergodicity ; Pattern informatics (PI) algorithm
- 刊名：Pure and Applied Geophysics
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：January 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：173
- 期：1
- 页码：245-254
- 全文大小：3,739 KB
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Zhongliang Wu (1)
Changsheng Jiang (1)
1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China - 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
- 刊物主题：Earth sciences
Geophysics and Geodesy - 出版者：Birkh盲user Basel
- ISSN：1420-9136
文摘
Instrumentally recorded seismicity from 1970/01/01 to 2014/01/01 of the central China north–south seismic belt (21.0°–41.5°N, 97.5°–107.5°E) was analyzed, emphasizing the applicability of the predictive algorithms based on the assumptions of meta-stable equilibrium. The seismicity in this region was shown to exhibit ergodicity from 1980 to the present, with sub-region dependence, and interrupted by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. pattern informatics algorithm, a statistical physics-based predictive model for five-year time scale, is put to forward forecast test for the period 2014/01/01 to 2019/01/01.