Effectiveness of Mitigation Measures in Reducing Future Primary Particulate Matter Emissions from On-Road Vehicle Exhaust

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• 作者：Fang Yan ; Tami C. Bond ; David G. Streets
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：December 16, 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：48
• 期：24
• 页码：14455-14463
• 全文大小：443K
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much as 70%. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16鈥?1%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22鈥?0% and 15鈥?1%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation of advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa.