Retrospective Analyses and Future Predictions of Snowmelt-Induced Acidification: Example from a Heavily Impacted Stream in the Czech Republic

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• 作者：H. Laudon ; J. Hru//pubs.acs.org/images/entities/scaron.gif" border="0">ka ; S. Kö ; hler ; and P. Krá ; m
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2005
• 出版时间：May 1, 2005
• 年：2005
• 卷：39
• 期：9
• 页码：3197 - 3202
• 全文大小：317K
• 年卷期：v.39,no.9(May 1, 2005)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

We have combined a long-term hydrochemistry model(MAGIC) with a model that predicts short-term transientchanges in hydrochemistry (pBDM) during hydrological eventsin order to improve the temporal resolution of retrospectiveanalyses and future predictions of streamwater acidification. The model has been applied to a heavily impactedcatchment in the Czech Republic. Spring flood acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), pH, and inorganic monomericaluminum (Al_iⁿ⁺) were simulated for the years of 1860,1900, 1930, 1950, 1965, and 1985, measured in 1999, andpredicted for 2030 using two different emission controlscenarios. If the emission reduction according to the currentlegislation scenario is implemented, the model predictsthat the spring flood pH, ANC, and Al_iⁿ⁺ will recover closeto the level of the 1950s by 2030. This will occur despitethe annual average chemistry being far from having recoveredto that level. The results suggest that the recovery ofspring flood events is faster then the recovery of annualaverage chemistry and that much of what is won by furtheremission reduction will not be fully realized on an annualtime scale.