A spatio-temporal geostatistical approach to predicting pollution levels: The case of mono-nitrogen oxides in Madrid

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• 作者：Jos&#233 ; -Marí ; a Montero-Lorenzo^a ; ¹ ; ^{Jose.MLorenzo@uclm.es} ; Gema Ferná ; ndez-Avil&#233 ; s^a ; ¹ ; ^{Gema.FAviles@uclm.es} ; Jos&#233 ; Mond&#233 ; jar-Jim&#233 ; nez^b ; ^{Jose.Mondejar@uclm.es} ; Manuel Vargas-Vargas^c ; ¹ ; ^{Manuel.Vargas@uclm.es}
• 关键词：Spatio-temporal kriging ; Functional kriging ; Composite weighted likelihood ; Pollution ; NOx
• 刊名：Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：January, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：37
• 期：Complete
• 页码：95-106
• 全文大小：1294 K

文摘

In spite of the effort made in the last years, NO_x is still one of the main pollution problems in large cities. This is why the literature related to predicting NO_x levels is certainly extensive. However, most of this literature does not take into account the spatio-temporal dependencies of such NO_x levels. As spatio-temporal dependencies are a core aspect of pollution, we propose both a spatio-temporal kriging and a functional kriging strategy to incorporate such dependencies into the prediction procedure. We also use an innovative method for estimating the parameters of the non separable space-time covariance function involved in the spatio-temporal kriging strategy, which significantly reduces the computational burden of traditional likelihood-based methods. The empirical study focuses on Madrid City and is backed by a massive hourly database. Results indicate that the functional strategy outperforms the spatio-temporal procedure at non peripheral sites, which is a remarkable finding due to the high computational requirements of spatio-temporal kriging.