- 责任者：Wu Zhonghai (Institute of Geomechanics ; Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences ; Beijing 100081 ; China) ; Zhao Genmo
- 刊名：Geological Bulletin of China
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：32(10)
- 关键词：地震预测 ; earthquake prediction
- 页码：p.1493-1512
- 图表：3 illus., 2 tables, 61 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1671-2552
- isbnNo：CN11-4648/P
The problem as to ＂whether earthquakes can be forecast or not＂ has become a matter of intense debate both in China and abroad; nevertheless, many empirical and physical earthquake precursor phenomena have been discovered based on the analysis of a large number of strong earthquake examples, and the emergence of the precursors more or less exists in different phases of the seismo- genic process. In regard to the important theoretical problems related to earthquake prediction, researchers of different disciplines have proposed many different theoretical models, such as the behavior of active faulting, the law of earthquake recurrence, active fault seg- mentation and large earthquake activity, the probability of earthquake recurrence prediction, the seismogenic process and the mecha- nism. These processes have also effectively promoted the development of earthquake prediction research. However, the situation of earthquake prediction work is not optimistic in China, and there are still many problems which require further improvement, such as obvious deficiencies of the basis of geological structure and seismic geology, the insufficiency of survey and study extent both in inter- mediate-term prediction and in long-term earthquake, the lack of cohesion between intermediate-term prediction and short-term earthquake prediction, and the relative weakness of the awareness of preventing large earthquakes. Based on this situation and the con- ditions of speeding up the urbanization process in China, the authors hold that at present the most realistic approach to mitigating earthquake disasters is the strengthening of the survey and study of geological structure and seismic geology on the premise of persisting in earthquake prediction research. At the same time, the work of preventing and mitigating earthquake disasters should be strengthened at several levels, the seismic resistance capabilities of major projects and buildings along the strong earthquake and active tectonic zonesor areas should be improved, and the whole society＇s consciousness of preventing and mitigating earthquake disasters should be height- ened so as to create a favorable environment for the sustainable development of earthquake prediction research work.