Application of Time-to-Failure Method in Strong Earthquakes Prediction of Xiaojiang Fault Zone in Yunnan
详细信息
- 责任者：Qian Xiaodong (Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province ; Kunming 650224 ; China)
- 刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
- 出版年：2010
- 卷期：33(2)
- 关键词：地震预测 ; earthquake prediction ; 云南 ; Yunnan Province
- 页码：p.138-146
- 图表：9 illus., 2 tables, 19 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1000-0666
- isbnNo：CN53-1062/P
摘要
On the basis of earthquake catalog data recorded by Yunnan region network, using time-to-failure method, the author simulated the process of accelerating energy release of precursory earthquake sequence, systematic research of accelerating energy release of model parameter estimation method and strong earthquake location search technology, derived the basic formula of prediction model. The author simulated 19 times the main seismic events of Xiaojiang Fault Zone.The results show that the accelerating energy release before strong earthquakes is an universal phenomenon. Search radius and the search time and the main earthquake magnitude are linear positive correlation. The author predicted medium-term strong earthquake risk areas in Xiaojiang Fault Zone using the main shock location search technique.
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