• 责任者：Li Gang (China Earthquake Networks Center ; Beijing 100045 ; China) ; Liu Jie
• 刊名：Earthquake
• 出版年：2011
• 卷期：31(3)
• 关键词：玉树地震2010 ; Yushu earthquake 2010 ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction ; 青海 ; Qinghai Province
• 页码：p.64-76
• 图表：12 illus., 5 tables, 4 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN1000-3274
• isbnNo：CN11-1893/P

In the paper, the autors collected and analyzed seismicity and precursor anomalies and their analysis results on yearly earthquake tendency forecast and weekly/monthly consultations between Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake and Yushu M7.1 earthquake. The results show that there were some explicit phenomena before the Yushu M7.1 earthquake, which forecasted the earthquake tendency and important seismic risk area in China mainland. But Yushu is in an area of poor monitoring capability, lacking the credible moderate-short term precursory anomalies. The strong-earthquake risk in the middle and east parts of the Tibet block was enhanced in 2010. But seismicity anomalies in the Yushu area were mainly the quietude anomalies, and precursory anomalies were few. Therefore short term prediction for the Yushu M7.1 earthquake could not be made.