Preliminary Review of Medium-Term Prediction for the Lushan Earthquake Occurred on April 20, 2013
详细信息
- 责任者：Xu Daoyi (Institute of Geology ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100029 ; China) ; Liu Benpei
- 刊名：Earth Science Frontiers
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：20(6)
- 关键词：大震 ; great earthquakes ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction ; 四川 ; Sichuan Province
- 页码：p.116-122
- 图表：2 illus., 2 tables, 24 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1005-2321
- isbnNo：CN11-3370/P
摘要
Before the appearance of Lushan earthquake on April 20,2013,there were many relatively well medium-term predictions,among which three essentially successful predictions including three elements(time,magnitude and region of the mentioned earthquake)are demonstrated in this article.Their predicted time and magnitude of the event agree well to that of the Lushan earthquake according to the requirements of mediumterm earthquake prediction,and their predicted regions are indicated in Fig.1,in which they are located not far from the epicenter of Lushan earthquake,the shortest distance is only about 40km between the epicenter and north boundary of the predicted region suggested by Deng Zhihui et al.(2012).Therefore,from the view point of medium-term prediction,the Lushan earthquake can be considered as a well successful forecasting example.As usually known,a lot of scientists agree to the point view that we do not know much about the underlying micro and macro-processes related to earthquake,which leads to an attitude of negating most of empirical but successful earthquake predictions.Evidences suggested by successful medium-term predictions related to the Lushan earthquake present new challenges to the above-mentioned pessimistic view,and demonstrate that a careful and intellectual collection of data sets could lead to a successful prediction as emphasized by the new upsurge of a revolution of thinking based on so-called"Big Data".