Earthquake Prediction: From Lushan Earthquake to Continental Earthquakes
详细信息
- 责任者：Li Dewei (Institute of Geological Survey ; China University of Geosciences ; Wuhan 430074 ; China) ; Chen Guifan
- 刊名：Earth Science Frontiers
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：20(3)
- 关键词：地震预测 ; earthquake prediction ; 青藏高原 ; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
- 页码：p.1-10
- 图表：illus., 20 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1005-2321
- isbnNo：CN11-3370/P
摘要
It has been recognized that basin and orogenic belt were simultaneously formed by lower crustal flow,which controlled by the laminar flow and diapir of the mantle asthenosphere from the relational ocean by the survey and study of the Tibetan Plateau since 1990.Unsteady lower crustal flow bred earthquakes on ductile-brittle middle crust by thermal energy-strain energy conversion,and released some seismogenic energy by brittle faulting of the upper crust.The associated across-the-year drought and abnormal rainfall during the breeding process of an earthquake constitute a thermal disaster chain.The Wenchuan,Yushu and Lushan earthquakes happened in the eastern Tibetan Plateau in recent five years,which are the results of obduction and lateral impact of "thermal river" in the ductile lower crust from Yadong flowing through Yangbajing,Amdo,and Yushu,then becoming branches toward Wenchuan and Lushan-Kangding.Five papers have been published since September,2008 involving the long-term,and medium-term forecasts for the three elements of Lushan earthquake according to the crustal thermal structure and temporal-spatial structure of the thermal disaster chain.A major earthquake may occur since 2013 according to the forecast of September 2008,and the first one of several about MS 7 earthquakes along the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Xiaojiang abnormal thermal tectonic belt will occur in Lushan or Xichang in recent five years according to the forecast of September 2012.The Lushan earthquake has only released a small part of the residual energy in the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Xiaojiang "thermal river",and therefore four about MS 7.0 earthquakes are likely to occur in Xichang-Huili-Zhaotong,Daofu-Kangding,and Tonghai-Shiping in next five years.In addition,the classic thermal disaster chain structure in the North China indicates a severe earthquake situation,and in the surrounding areas of the Bohai Sea,major earthquakes are likely to occur in the next three years.The ideas and methods of three-dimensional dynamic monitoring and short-impending earthquake prediction are proposed in the light of relevance between the thermal fluid impacting mechanism and anomalies of earthquakes.