Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Long-Term and Intermediate-Term Seismic HazardⅠ: Molchan Error Diagramoft-com:office:office" />
详细信息
- 责任者：Jiang Changsheng (Institute of Geophysics ; CEA ; Beijing 100081 ; China) ; Zhang Langping
- 刊名：Earthquake
- 出版年：2011
- 卷期：31(2)
- 关键词：地震危险性 ; seismic risk ; 统计分析 ; statistical analysis
- 页码：p.106-113
- 图表：4 illus., 17 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1000-3274
- isbnNo：CN11-1893/P
摘要
Based on the retrospective forecast results of PI and RI algorithm in the northeastern marginal region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the authors try to introduce how to apply the Molchan error diagram to do the statistical test of earthquake probabilistic forecast, and the situation of spatial-box number weighted and seismic rate weighted are considered respectively to calculate the fraction of space-time occupied by alarm. The result shows that the Molchan error diagram can evaluate the probabilistic earthquake forecast model effectively by using the significance level α and the probability gain. Furthermore, the significant different testing results also can be found.