• 责任者：Shi Xiaoli (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research ; CAS ; Beijing 100101 ; China) ; Wu Shaohong
• 刊名：Geographical Research
• 出版年：2011
• 卷期：30(4)
• 关键词：生态系统 ; ecosystem ; 碳循环 ; carbon cycle ; 中国 ; China
• 页码：p.601-611
• 图表：5 illus., 3 tables, 53 refs.
• 分类号：1800
• issnNo：ISSN1000-0585
• isbnNo：CN11-1848/P

Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystem simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time-series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystem were investigated. The results show that, under the IPCC SRES-B2 climate scenario, the climate change will bring risk of carbon sequestration, and the high risk level will dominate the terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. Till the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk. Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, Middle and Lower Reaches Plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.