Application of Accelerating Seismic Strain Release Model in East China
详细信息
- 责任者：Ni Hongyu (Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province ; Hefei 230031 ; China) ; Liu Dongwang
- 刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
- 出版年：2011
- 卷期：34(3)
- 关键词：地震前兆 ; precursor ; 华东地区 ; East China
- 页码：p.278-285
- 图表：7 illus., 2 tables, 18 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- 出版序号：101
- issnNo：ISSN1000-0666
- isbnNo：CN53-1062/P
摘要
According to the characteristics of seismic activity in East China,we define a simple approach of searching radius and choose fourteen ML≥4.5 earthquake sequences since 1976 in East China which satisfy the pre-seismic Accelerating Strain Release(ASR) model.We express the nonlinear time-to-failure analysis equation with two linear equations and fit the empirical relation between the coefficient k/m and the main seismic moment tensor by means of Linear Least Square method in order to construct ASR model of East China for the prediction of the time and magnitude of the main shock in East China.Comparing the magnitude and the original time from the ASR model with the ones of the occurred strong shocks,we find that the magnitude error is ±0.3 and the time error is ±1.68 years.
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